2013년 11월 24일 일요일

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               Most               people               know               this:               gasoline               and               diesel               are               hot,               red               hot,               and               people               in               every               part               of               the               world               just               cannot               get               enough               of               them.

Most               people               would               also               agree               that               if               somebody               can               get               tons               of               gasoline               and               diesel               from               refiners               somehow               and               store               them               into               giant               oil               storage               tanks               in               any               major               city               in               the               world,               that               person               will               be               very               very               rich               because               all               oil               retailers,               gas               stations,               and               factories               using               oil               generators               in               or               around               the               city               will               rush               in               to               pay               the               owner               a               handsome               price               to               buy               the               gasoline               and               diesel.

What               very               few               people               know:               there               is               an               oil               distributor/wholesaler               in               China               called               Longwei               Petroleum               Investment               Holding               Limited               (LPH),               which               possess               highly               sought-after               and               extremely               hard               to               obtained               national               licenses               of               storing,               wholesaling,               and               distributing               petroleum               products               in               China,               two               huge               facilities               with               extremely               costly               and               hard               to               built               giant               oil               storage               tanks,               state               of               the               art               computer               monitoring               system,               fueling               stations,               and               railways               for               transporting               products               directly               to               factories,               straight-forward               and               stable               business               model,               and               highly               reliable               and               easily               verifiable               national               suppliers,               trading               at               a               dirt-cheap               estimated               current-year               P/E               of               about               2.5,               estimated               forward               P/E               of               less               than               1.5,               and               below               book               value               of               equity               per               share!
               In               comparison,               most               comparables               of               the               company               all               over               the               world               such               as               PetroChina               (PTR),               China               Petroleum               &               Chemical               Corp               (SNP),               CNOOK               (CEO),               Taishan               Petro               (traded               in               China),               Shen               Yang               Petro               (traded               in               China),               Kinder               Morgan               Energy               (KMP),               Energy               Transfer               Equity               (ETE),               Southern               Union               Company               (SUG),               Regency               Energy               Partners               (RGNC),               Enterprise               Products               Partners               LP               (EPD),               Copano               Energy               (CPNO),               Kinder               Morgan               (KMI),               MarkWest               Energy               (MWE),               El               Paso               Pipeline               (EPB),               El               Paso               Corp               (EP),               Energy               Transfer               Partners               (ETP),               Duncan               Energy               (DEP),               Magellan               Midstream               Partners               (MMP),               Chevron               (CVX),               ConocoPhillips               (COP),               Exxon               Mobil               (XOM),               Schlumberger               (SLB),               BP               PLC               (BP),               Petroleo               Brasileiro               (PBR),Valero               (VLO),               Tesoro               Corporation               (TSO),               Chesapeake               Energy               (CHK),               Frontier               Oil               (FTO)               are               trading               a               P/E               multiples               of               10,               15,               20,               or               even               higher.
               I               believe               that               the               stock               has               been               unduly               affected               by               recent               negative               sentiment               on               Chinese               stocks               and               temporarily               depressed               to               this               unjustifiably               low               level.

I               feel               that               after               the               dusts               settle               in               Chinese               small               cap               space,               the               stock               should               gradually               appreciate               to               a               P/E               of               10,               about               the               average               P/E               level               in               the               industry.

I               also               believe               that               at               current               price               level               the               probability               of               instant               arbitrages               on               the               stock               --               big               intuitional               buy,               hostile               takeover,               private               buyout,               due               listing,               etc               --               is               very               real               and               can               hit               the               wire               any               time.

Some               recent               examples               of               valuation               arbitration               resulting               in               huge               flash               price               jumps               are:
               Buyout               offer               on               HRBN               at               about               200%               premium:               http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/china-s-harbin-electric-jumps-on-buyout-offer.html?cmpid=yhoo.
               The               CEO               of               Puda               Coal               (PUDA)               announcing               a               cash               buyout               offer               of               all               PUDA               shares               for               $12               per               share,               100%               premium               over               its               halted               price               of               $6:               (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Puda-Coal-Receives-BuyOut-prnews-1178582160.html?x=0&.v=1).
               Morgan               Stanley's               large               purchase               order               on               YONG:               (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/morgan-stanley-invests-in-short-sale-target-yongye-international.html?cmpid=yhoo)
               Bain               Capital               Partners's               buyout               offer               on               CFSG:               (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/us-privequity-orphans-idUSTRE74N0G620110524?feedType=RSS&feedName=innovationNews&rpc=43)
               Buyout               of               CPC:               http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chemspec-International-prnews-407766362.html?x=0&.v=1
               Buyout               of               FTLK:               http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Funtalk-China-Holdings-prnews-424194345.html?x=0&.v=1
               The               happening               of               just               one               of               the               aforementioned               outright               valuation               arbitrations               can               send               the               stock               price               of               this               extremely               undervalued               companies               up               by               50%               -               100%               in               just               one               day               and               300+%               in               3               to               6               months               when               the               deal               is               completed               (see               later               paragraphs               for               further               analysis).
               More               Background               Information:
               The               company               is               in               the               business               of               oil               mass               storage,               wholesaling,               and               distribution               in               Shanxi               province               and               adjacent               provinces               in               China.

Longwei               has               campuses               of               two               big               campuses               of               industry-leading               storage               facilities               in               Shanxi               province               and               is               in               the               process               of               closing               the               deal               on               acquiring               the               third               one               soon.

The               company               has               an               extensive               distribution               network               with               its               own               and               affiliated               gas               stations               and               transportation               trucks               covering               a               huge               footprint               in               Shanxi               province               and               the               adjacent               Shaanxi               province.
               Shanxi               and               Shaanxi               provinces               are               in               a               region               that               is               China               government's               primary               focus               to               increase               business               activities               and               per               capita               income               under               current               5               year               plan.

Many               cities               in               the               two               provinces               are               experiencing               above               average               growth               rate               right               now               and               transforming               from               developing               cities               to               developed               cities               like               Shanghai,               Beijing,               and               Guangzhou.

The               prosperity               of               the               region               creates               a               great               backdrop               for               Longwei               to               growth               its               business               in               a               fast               speed               in               the               next               decade.
               More               background               information               for               the               company               is               available               in               the               following               sites:
               http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=LPH+Profile
               http://longweipetroleum.com
               http://www.longweishihua.com               (Chinese)
               The               company               has               delivered               a               robust               compound               annual               revenue               growth               rate               of               over               50%               in               the               past               three               years               and               over               70%               last               year,               this               of               course               partly               was               attributed               to               the               fast               increase               of               total               consumption               and               price               of               crude               oil               and               gasoline               in               China.

The               sentiment               toward               further               growth               of               gasoline               price               and               consumption               in               China               has               recently               been               dampened               as               a               result               of               consecutive               rate               hikes               made               by               China               Central               Government               over               the               past               three               months.

This               worry,               however,               is               at               minimum               over               stretched               and               probably               completely               misplaced.

Unlike               The               increase               of               gasoline               price               and               sale               volume               in               China               over               the               past               decade               was               driven               by               strong               growth               in               "intrinsic               demand"               --               need               for               more               oil               by               growing               urban               populations               and               corporations,               cars,               flights,               power               plants,               factories,               and               production               activities               from               these               factories.

Even               after               two               decades               of               fast               GDP               growth,               there               are               actually               about               500               million               "middle               class               and               above"               population               in               China.

The               remaining               900+               million               people               are               at               marginally               acceptable               or               poor               living               standard.

The               majority               in               the               later               group               are               even               short               of               household               essentials               such               as               cell               phones,               refrigerator,               TV,               and               microwave,               letting               alone               owning               cars               or               taking               flights.

It               is               China               central               government's               goal               to               bring               urbanization               and               higher               per               capita               income               to               those               under-developed               areas,               most               of               them               located               in               western               and               northern               China,               over               the               next               10               years.

That's               why               despite               of               the               government's               hard               effort               in               trying               to               prevent               the               economy               from               running               out               of               control               over               the               past               year,               the               economy               is               still               growing               at               over               10%               annual               rate               this               past               quarter               and               is               expected               to               still               deliver               9%               growth               rate               in               2011.

Under               this               backdrop               of               general               economy,               it               is               certain               that               demand               and               consumption               for               gasoline               will               continue               to               be               strong               and               grow               steadily,               albeit               possibly               at               slightly               lower               rate               than               last               year,               in               2011               and               beyond.

My               view               of               strong               demand               for               oil               are               shared               by               many               financial               analysts               and               economists               in               China.

Here               are               two               examples:
               http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703954004576090250923792020.html
               http://www.ethanolmarket.com/XXIII/5/IEA-2011-Demand-Forecast-China-Affecting-Everything_41735
               Unlike               the               financial               market               of               U.S.,               the               financial               market               in               China               does               not               offer               futures               and               options               on               gasoline.

Unlike               the               case               for               the               U.S.

before               2008,               no               speculation               or               "financial               demand"               does               not               have               any               share               in               shaping               gasoline               price               in               China.

So,               there               is               really               no               "bobble"               of               gasoline               demand               and               price               right               now               in               China.

Barring               the               cases               of               a               complete               stale               in               GDP               growth               or               worse               a               drop               in               GDP,               it               is               not               rational               to               expect               a               disappearance               of               growth               in               gasoline               demand               in               China               in               the               foreseeable               future.
               At               micro               geographic               level,               the               growth               prospect               for               oil               wholesalers               and               retailers               in               Shanxi               and               Shaanxi               provinces               is               even               stronger               than               national               average.

The               region,               located               just               west               and               north               from               the               central               point               of               China,               is               right               on               the               border               of               the               "developed               portion"               and               "under               developed               portion"               and               at               the               front               line               of               the               next               wave               of               urbanization               and               GDP               growth               plan               China               central               government               is               implementing.

Some               good               articles               on               the               region's               fast               economy               growth               can               be               find               below:
               http://www.shanxi.gov.cn/n16/n8319541/n8319612/n8322053/n8324962/n14398382/14623870.html               (official               2010               economy               review               in               Chinese               on               Shanxi               Provincial               Government               website)
               http://dengruo.info/201012/shanxi-comprehensive-reform-areas-fall/
               http://www.evd.nl/zoeken/showbouwsteen.asp?bstnum=224936&location=
               http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=10&ved=0CFIQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.seiofbluemountain.com%2Fsearch%2Fdownload-file.php%3Fid%3D4063&ei=k5JRTb-DDIm4sAOxv7XwBg&usg=AFQjCNHsC0daQB5SixOJZ7wpxqpFb2Dhvg               (note               that               this               article               also               mentioned               the               short               of               financing               sources               faced               by               many               enterprises               in               Shanxi,               the               reason               that               Longwei               came               to               U.S.

to               seek               financing               from               American               investors               and               in               return               offers               this               rare               investment               opportunity               to               Americans,               a               win-win               situation)
               The               Industry               and               Competitions:
               The               company's               business               is               very               infrastructure               and               technology               intensive,               but               relatively               not               labor               intensive.

As               the               company               stated               in               its               10K               filing,               "Barriers               to               entry               in               the               industry               are               very               high               due               to               stringent               licensing               requirements               and               the               need               for               significant               storage               capacity",               which               I               completely               agree               basing               on               my               knowledge               of               this               industry               and               China               regulatory               environment.

The               business               requires               huge               up-front               investment               in               infrastructures               and               equipments,               and               requires               the               facilities               and               supporting               operations               to               comply               to               a               strict               sets               of               safety               and               environmental               regulations.

The               financing               requirement               is               daunting               under               normal               times               and               is               daunting               currently               and               in               the               foreseeable               future               due               to               tight               monetary               environment               lenders               in               China               are               facing               right               now.

This               is               one               of               the               reasons               the               company               chose               to               be               listed               in               the               United               States               --               to               seek               financing               from               American               investors               to               seize               lucrative               acquisition               and               expansion               opportunities               currently               present               in               the               industry               (see               further               discussions               below).

The               safety               and               environmental               requirements               are               tedious               and               sophisticated.

A               small               mistake               made               during               construction               of               the               facilities               can               cause               a               company               a               huge               financial               cost               and               effort               to               remedy,               and               in               some               cases               can               be               uncorrectable.

Both               factors               give               unsurpassable               advantage               to               existing               operators               in               the               industry,               especially               those               with               an               experienced               management               team,               as               is               the               case               with               LPH.

Last               but               not               the               least,               due               to               cumbersome               application,               monitoring,               and               tedious               regulatory               conformation               procedures,               provincial               officers               always               prefer               doing               business               with               existing               companies               that               they               have               been               acquainted               with               over               the               years               and               are               very               reluctant               to               even               consider               reviewing               applications               from               start-ups.

All               of               these               facts               converse               to               the               a               single               point:               almost               unsurpassable               barriers               to               entry               and               secured               and               profitable               lives               for               established               players               in               the               industry.
               Recent               Developments:
               On               the               backdrop               of               recent               turmoil               in               the               Chinese               small               cap               group,               the               management               team               of               LPH               has               done               several               things               this               year               in               order               to               assert               itself               as               completely               legitimate               and               robust               company.

First,               on               4/15/2011               CFO               of               LPH               Mr.

Michael               Toups               issued               a               news               release               to               respond               to               investors'               concerns:               http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Longwei-Petroleum-CFO-prnews-4091296973.html?x=0&.v=1
               The               most               important               information               provided               by               Mr.

Toups'               answers               are:
               The               management               team               will               not               issue               new               shares               at               then               current               price               $1.64               to               finance               the               purchase               of               the               new               facility               but               will               instead               use               cash               on               hand,               working               capital,               and               debt               financing               to               finance               the               acquisition.

The               board               of               directors               is               working               on               upgrading               the               auditor               to               a               big               4               or               6               accounting               firm               and               has               had               preliminary               discussions               with               all               of               these               audit               firms.

Next,               on               5/19/2011               after               its               last               ER               on               5/17/2011               the               company               hosted               a               conference               call               to               review               Q3               results               and               answer               analysts'               questions.

In               my               opinion,               Mr.

Toups               gave               very               well-thought               and               informative               answers               to               key               questions               such               as               financing               for               the               new               acquisition,               how               the               company               can               maintain               good               operating               margins,               re-assurance               of               clean               financials,               and               high               possibility               of               auditor               upgrade               beginning               next               fiscal               year,               re-affirmation               of               fiscal               year               revenue               and               non-GAAP               net               income               guidance,               etc.

Again,               the               information               that               the               management               team               will               try               to               finance               the               new               acquisition               solely               through               current               working               capital,               future               earnings,               and               debt               financing               and               will               only               issue               new               shares               at               no               less               than               $3               per               share               as               the               last               resort               to               finance               no               more               than               25%               of               the               purchase               price               is               especially               encouraging.

As               a               reminder,               This               last               acquisition               of               a               large-scale               facility               in               non-overlapping               geographic               area               confirmed               to               my               research               and               analytical               conclusion               BEFORE               THE               EVENT               that               northern               and               southern               part               of               Shanxi               province               offer               huge               additional               short               to               long               term               growth               opportunities               on               top               of               what               the               company               can               find               in               central               part               of               Shanxi               province,               the               area               its               two               current               facilities               reside.
               The               CFO               also               stressed               again               that               the               management               is               very               eager               to               upgrade               its               auditor               for               2012               to               assure               to               the               world               that               the               company               is               very               serious               about               maintaining               a               well-controlled               internal               accounting               procedure               and               processes               that               completely               follow               GAAP               guidelines.

He               even               went               to               a               point               to               disagree               with               a               caller's               opinion               that               upgrading               of               auditor               at               this               point               might               not               be               important               in               saying               that               "the               CEO               and               board               just               want               to               get               a               bigger               name               auditor               for               2012               regardless".

I               don't               know               how               other               people               think               but               to               me               this               unintentional               response               from               the               CFO               to               a               caller               tells               me               clearly               that               the               management               team               is               not               just               talking               but               actually               walking               the               talk               on               auditor               upgrade.

I               surely               disagree               with               the               thinking               that               hiring               a               big               4               or               6               accounting               firm               will               prove               nothing               for               LPH               simply               because               some               Chinese               small               caps               having               big               4               firms               as               their               auditors               were               also               alleged               of               fraud.

The               argument               will               be               like               saying               passing               a               security               check               point               in               terminals               today               says               nothing               more               about               the               likelihood               of               a               person               carrying               dangerous               articles               because               many               terrorists               carrying               arms               passed               security               check               points               with               ease               before               911.

Everybody               knows               security               checking               equipments               and               procedures               in               terminals               have               become               so               much               better               today               after               911.

Similarly,               after               recent               allegations               on               some               Chinese               small               caps,               I               bet               that               big               accounting               firms               that               care               about               their               images               and               reputations               surely               have               improved               their               controlling               and               auditing               processes               for               Chinese               clients               from               these               lessons               learned               and               will               not               sign               up               a               new               Chinese               small               cap               without               examining               all               key               titles               and               transactions               that               account               for               at               least               90%               of               the               company's               revenue,               costs,               assets,               and               liabilities.

So,               the               fact               that               the               management               team               is               not               afraid               but               rather               desires               to               engage               and               sign               a               big               4               or               6               auditor               have               already               convinced               me               that               what               investors               see               in               their               quarterly               and               annual               reports               are               indeed               what               they               get.

It               is               also               possible               that               the               management               team               is               reviewing               listing               in               NYSE,               Hong               Kong,               or               mainland               China               so               that               the               management               team               would               like               to               have               a               bigger               auditor               in               place               to               help               the               new               IPO.

Note               that               the               CFO               said               in               responding               to               another               question               that               the               management               team               will               consider               some               investors               suggestions               to               study               the               possibility               of               listing               in               other               markets               such               as               Hong               Kong               where               investors               do               not               have               any               negative               bias               toward               companies               from               mainland               China.

See               later               sections               for               further               discussions               on               this               topic.
               Next,               on               4/20/2011               the               CFO               gave               a               very               impressive               presentation               on               RedChip               virtual               conference:               http://www.redchip.com/visibility/conferencePages/virtualconferences/april2011/virtualarchiveapril2011.asp#
               Important               topics               covered               by               the               CFO               in               the               presentation               were:
               The               company               has               12               own               tanker               trucks               used               to               deliver               oil               products               to               its               gas               stations               and               customers'               locations.

Some               customers               also               send               in               their               own               oil               tankers               to               transport               oil               products.

Coal               production               in               Shanxi               province               is               growing               at               30%               annual               rate               right               not,               and               other               industrial               activities               in               Shanxi               and               adjacent               provinces               are               growing               fast               too.

Two               key               requirements               these               industrial               customers               have               on               energy               supplier               are               reliability               and               speed               of               supply.

So,               location               is               key               to               service               industrial               customers.

That               explains               the               importance               of               LPH's               newly               acquired               3rd               facility               at               the               northern               part               of               Shanxi               province.

Each               of               LPH's               top               five               suppliers               accounts               for               10%               -               17%               of               LPH's               total               supply.

In               other               words,               the               concentration               risk               is               low.

LPH               has               strong               relationship               with               all               suppliers               and               have               ability               to               lock               in               the               price               for               future               orders               in               advance               with               some               advance               deposit.

The               company               increases               advance               to               suppliers               and               decreases               inventory               on               hand               when               price               rises               quickly;               on               the               other               hand               the               company               decreases               advance               to               suppliers               and               increases               inventory               on               hand               when               price               stagnates               or               drops.

The               company               is               able               to               forecast               future               gasoline               and               diesel               prices               with               high               accuracy               because               China               government               gives               22               days               "lock-back"               period               basing               on               basket               of               international               prices               in               its               price               setting               process               for               wholesale               and               retail               products.

Combining               this               with               point               4,               the               company               is               able               to               maintain               a               very               strong               gross               margin               --               a               wide               price               differential               between               the               prices               it               sells               to               customer               and               the               prices               it               pays               suppliers.

The               company's               strong               relationships               with               suppliers               allow               it               to               obtain               oil               products               on               a               timely               manner               when               there               is               a               sudden               surge               in               demand               for               its               products.

The               management               team               will               use               cash               on               hand,               working               capital,               and               debts               to               finance               acquisition               of               the               new               facility.

The               management               team               is               foreseeing               revenue               of               $925               million               and               net               income               of               $125               million               for               fiscal               year               2012               if               acquisition               of               the               new               facility               is               completed               by               the               end               of               this               fiscal               year.

In               the               case               that               the               management               team               will               consider               issuing               new               shares               to               help               financing               the               new               facility,               the               management               team               will               use               equity               financing               of               no               more               than               $25               million               and               will               not               sell               any               new               shares               below               $3               per               share.

In               any               case,               the               management               team               will               keep               dilution               below               10%               of               current               shares               outstanding               to               deliver               maximum               accretion               to               EPS               from               the               new               acquisition               for               existing               shareholders.

The               management               team               has               been               constantly               adding               talents               to               its               accounting               team               and               strengthen               accounting               control               and               transparency.

The               company               is               looking               to               upgrade               its               auditor               to               one               of               the               big-4               auditors               for               the               coming               fiscal               year.

The               company               was               re-designing               its               website,               which               will               include               live               videos               of               operations               in               the               facilities               (the               website               is               already               down;               see               later               paragraph).

The               company               welcomes               any               investor               or               analyst               to               visit               all               its               facilities.

Numbers               in               the               company's               SAIC               filing               match               numbers               in               its               SEC               filing               after               adjusting               for               time               period               difference,               business               transactions               in               the               U.S.

that               are               not               included               in               SAIC               filing               in               China,               and               other               minor               adjustments               such               as               currency               rates.

               The               management               team               aims               at               eventually               list               the               company               on               NYSE               (though               I               suspect               the               management               team               might               be               thinking               about               other               better               alternatives               of               listing               than               NYSE               or               Nasdaq,               which               I'll               go               over               later).

The               company               has               done               very               thorough               due               diligence               when               preparing               its               acquisition               of               Gujiao               and               Haujie               facilities               and               have               both               U.S.

and               China               legal               consoles               review               the               acquisition               valuations,               legal               documents,               and               financing.

Then,               on               6/3/2011,               Longwei's               IR               firm               RedChip               posted               a               video               online               in               which               Redchip               CEO               Mr.

Gentry               visited               Longwei's               headquarter               and               facilities               in               Taiyuan               city               and               interviewed               its               CEO               Mr.

Cai               and               CFO               Mr.

Toups.

The               video               can               be               watched               on               this               page:               http://www.redchip.com/testflash.asp
               The               video               contains               very               good               information               and               visual               evidences               that               in               my               opinion               proves               that               LPH               is               everything               its               management               team               says               it               is.

The               video               gives               general               public               a               clear               view               on               what's               going               on               at               the               facilities               including               its               high               capacity               storage               tanks,               pump               stations               (for               fuel               tanks),               rail               spurs               connecting               to               national               main               rail               lines               heading               to               power               plants               and               coal               mines,               and               a               cutting               edge               ERP               system,               which               is               integrated               with               its               accounting               system               to               automatically               debit               an               appropriate               AR               account               basing               on               automatic               inputs               from               the               fueling               system               at               the               pumps               when               a               customer's               truck               is               filled               up               and               credit               an               appropriate               AP               account               when               a               vendor's               tanker               adds               gasoline/diesel               to               the               storage               tanks.

This               way,               human               intervention               is               prohibited               and               mistakes               in               recording               business               transactions               are               minimized.

Here               is               Baidu               map               of               LPH's               Taiyuan               facility               clearly               showing               national               rail               ways               going               through               the               facility:               http://map.baidu.com/?newmap=1&s=inf%26uid%3D81d127560f3bd0acf12d8356%26c%3D176%26it%3D1&fr=10.

Here               is               a               list               of               hotels               near               LPH's               Taiyuan               facility:               http://www.17u.com/tag/shanxi-taiyuan-307/longweishihua/.

Note               that               this               is               a               page               on               a               travel               portal               specifically               for               visitors               to               LPH's               Taiyuan               facility.

Apparently,               the               facility               is               probably               famous               in               Shanxi               and               attracts               quite               some               business               and               individual               visitors               every               week               so               that               the               travel               website               dedicates               a               hotel               list               page               just               for               the               facility.

By               showing               this               video               the               company               has               really               raises               itself               above               even               the               largest               global               oil               giants               such               as               Exxon               Mobile,               Chevron,               or               Philips               Conoco               Phillips               in               terms               of               transparency               and               visibility               to               investors               because               I               bet               very               few               investors               including               institutional               ones               have               checked               the               oil               wells,               platforms,               and               other               facilities               of               these               oil               producers               and               distributors.

In               the               video,               the               CFO               said               that               the               facility               fills               up               50-60               oil               tanker               trucks               every               day,               a               throughput               clearly               supported               by               just               the               two               fueling               stations               for               oil               tankers               shown               in               the               video               that               can               fuel               at               least               8               oil               tankers               simultaneously.

The               CFO               also               explained               the               usages               of               various               sizes               of               storage               tanks               to               serve               various               need               of               customers               and               stressed               the               huge               untapped               total               capacity               in               these               tanks               for               further               inventory               expansion.

In               addition,               the               CFO               confirmed               once               again               that               the               board               has               talked               to               big               6               accounting               firms               and               is               aiming               at               upgrading               to               one               of               them               for               fiscal               year               2012               when               answering               Mr.

Gentry's               question               regarding               eliminating               investors'               concern               on               reliability               of               accounting               reports.

Last               but               not               least,               the               CFO               touched               on               the               strategic               importance               and               appeal               of               its               newly               acquired               facility               in               northern               Shanxi,               which               echo's               my               analysis               of               where               the               company               should               expand               to               in               my               coverage               initiation               and               follow-up               post               on               the               company's               acquisition               of               the               new               facility.
               Next,               the               company               has               created               a               totally               re-designed,               re-engineered               new               website               on               6/14/2011               (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Longwei-Petroleum-Announces-prnews-1716385882.html?x=0&.v=1).

The               new               website               can               be               seen               here:               http://www.longweipetroleum.com/.

It               is               apparent               that               the               company               has               spent               a               lot               of               time               and               money               designing               the               new               website.

The               layout               and               appearance               of               the               new               website               look               very               professional               and               cutting               edge               than               the               old               website.

It               fits               perfectly               to               the               management               team's               mandate               of               bringing               Longwei               to               the               next               level               --               in               the               management's               term               the               "major               league"               of               the               energy               industry               and               publicly               traded               companies.
               The               new               website               contains               a               lot               of               well               organized               and               valuable               information               such               as:
               The               home               page               and               Overview               page               in               Corporate               Info               section               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/corporate-info/overview)               clearly               list               all               facilities               and               assets               (oil               tanks,               railroads,               owned               by               the               company               and               their               capacities               and               key               licenses               awarded               by               China               central               government.

The               Management               and               Board               of               Director               page               in               Corporate               Info               section               list               detailed               background               and               qualifications               of               key               executives               and               directors.

In               my               opinion,               the               executives               and               board               of               directors               have               strong               experience               in               business               administration,               corporate               governance,               accounting               control,               financial               markets,               and               the               oil               industry.

The               page               in               Petroleum               Projects               section               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/petroleum-products)               lists               all               current               major               products               the               company               is               selling               with               exact               product               numbers               used               in               China.

The               home               page               and               Competitive               Advantage               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/competitive-advantage),               Sales               &               Marketing               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/sales-marketing),               Growth               Strategy               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/growth-strategy),               and               China's               Energy               Market               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/chinas-energy-market)               pages               in               Operations               section               provide               detailed               descriptions               and               explanations               of               the               industry,               the               market,               and               the               company's               strategy               of               expansion,               growth               prospect,               and               competitive               advantages               that               the               management               team               went               over               in               conference               calls               and               presentations.

The               Storage               &               Operations               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/storage-operations),               Railroad               System               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/railroad-system),               and               Quality               Control               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/quality-control)               pages               in               Operations               section               provide               detailed               descriptions               and               explanations               of               these               key               aspects               of               operations               and               show               photos               of               various               parts               of               the               facility               for               investors               to               see               in               their               own               eyes.

Many               of               the               equipments,               people,               and               fixtures               shown               here               are               also               shown               in               the               onsite               interview               video               mentioned               earlier               (http://www.redchip.com/visibility/investor.asp?symbol=lph)               There               is               a               Facility               Web               Cams               page               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/operations/facility-web-cams),               which               is               going               to               show               daily               operations               in               the               facilities               so               that               all               investors               can               see               and               feel               daily               lives               of               the               staff               employees               and               workers               in               the               site               (and               hopefully               appreciate               what               they               work               on               diligently               every               day               for               the               society               and               the               shareholders).

Per               formal               response               I               got               from               the               management               team,               the               implementation               of               the               live               videos               has               been               delayed               due               to               firewall               issues               that               are               technically               more               difficult               to               overcome               than               the               IT               team's               original               estimate.

As               a               person               with               hands-on               system               development               experience,               I               can               certainly               sympathize               with               the               challenge               the               IT               team               is               facing.

I               also               think               that               live               streaming               may               not               provide               good               viewing               experience               for               investors               in               the               U.S.

because               cross-pacific               bandwidth               is               limited               (granted,               some               investors               might               be               ok               viewing               lagged               videos).

I               have               suggested               using               timely               updated               video               recordings               as               an               alternative.

It               would               .like               daily               "transaction               logs"               of               a               database               that               can               be               used               to               show               what               happens               in               a               database               every               day               and               recover               the               database               to               any               date               and               time.

This               way,               the               quality               of               the               video               can               be               higher               than               real-time               streaming               and               viewers               can               cache               for               a               while               before               start               viewing               to               make               watching               a               video               a               more               pleasant               experience.

The               management               team               said               that               they               have               taken               my               suggestion               seriously               and               will               adopt               it               if               the               firewall               issue               cannot               be               solved               soon.

So,               I               think               the               videos,               live               or               recorded,               will               be               shown               in               this               page               very               soon.

For               now,               the               onsite               interview               video               mentioned               earlier               has               served               the               purpose               of               showing               many               parts               of               the               operations               to               the               public.

The               pages               in               Investor               Relations               section               make               all               SEC               and               other               public               financial,               conference               calls,               and               other               business               information               easily               accessible               for               the               public.

The               design               and               functions               of               pages               in               this               section               is               very               impressive               and               match               those               on               the               websites               of               fortune               100               companies               in               my               opinion.

The               easily               customizable               spreadsheet               view               of               historical               prices               (http://ir.stockpr.com/longweipetroleum/historical-quotes)               and               financial               data               (http://ir.stockpr.com/longweipetroleum/financials)               is               especially               convenient               for               investors               and               analysts.

The               FAQ               page               under               Shareholder               Resources               (http://ir.stockpr.com/longweipetroleum/faq)               answers               many               key               questions               that               investors               care               the               most.

Notice               that               the               question               about               the               company's               independent               auditor               is               left               blank,               possibly               because               an               announcement               of               a               new               auditor               is               coming               soon               and               the               management               team               doesn't               want               to               confuse               investors               now.

The               FAQ               page,               IR               contacts               page               (http://ir.stockpr.com/longweipetroleum/ir-contacts)               and               Contact               Us               page               (http://www.longweipetroleum.com/contact-us)               make               detailed               address               and               phone               numbers               to               the               company's               offices,               CFO,               Investors'               Relations,               Transfer               Agent,               and               Legal               Counsel               openly               available               to               the               public.

Again,               the               contents               and               designs               of               these               pages               match               the               biggest               and               best               known               companies               of               the               world               in               my               opinion               (many               small               caps               do               not               openly               and               willing               show               a               lot               of               contact               information               to               their               executives               and               offices).

Last               but               not               the               least,               the               company               presented               again               in               RedChip's               virtual               conference               on               6/23/2011               -               http://www.redchip.com/visibility/video/displayClientpre.asp?symbol=LPH&confID=12&fileloc=mms://wm.vitalstreamcdn.com/aurelius_vitalstream_com/RC/VCJUN2011/LPH_VCJUN2011_pres.wmv&descr=RedChip               Virtual               Conference               VIII
               The               company               even               went               so               far               as               to               file               a               formal               SEC               form               8-K               registration               to               make               its               presentation               an               official               legal               document               in               SEC's               record               -               http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001013762%2D11%2D001806%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2011%5C06%5C23%5C&CoName=LONGWEI+PETROLEUM+INVESTMENT+HOLDING+LTD&FormType=8%2DK&RcvdDate=6%2F23%2F2011&pdf=
               LPH               seems               to               be               the               only               presenting               company               in               the               conference               to               make               this               extra               effort               to               marking               its               management               team's               words               on               a               stone.

Because               other               presenting               companies               did               not               do               that,               it               is               reasonable               to               assume               that               LPH's               management               team               did               this               by               their               own               judgment               and               was               not               advised               by               RedChip               team.

Small               things               like               this               truly               set               the               confidence               and               integrity               of               LPH's               management               team               apart               from               those               of               most               other               Chinese               small               caps.

By               registering               the               presentation               to               SEC               the               management               team               essentially               hard               bind               themselves               legally               on               every               information               and               numbers               they               have               in               the               presentation.

This               is               yet               one               more               evidence               supporting               that               what               investors               have               seen               and               heard               from               the               company's               official               communication               channels               (websites,               presentations,               videos)               are               what               the               company               really               is.
               Some               new               pieces               of               information               provided               in               this               last               conference               presentation               (including               the               Q&A               section)               are:
               1.

The               management               team               is               seeing               revenue               of               $925               million,               adjusted               net               income               of               $123               million,               and               adjusted               EPS               of               $1.09               (adjusted               net               income               and               EPS               exclude               potential               non-cash               derivative               revaluation               charges               for               the               remaining               not               yet               exercised               warrants               issued               in               2009,               which               is               about               9%               of               current               shares               outstanding).

2.

The               CFO               answered               in               the               Q&A               section               that               the               board               is               aware               of               the               huge               valuation               gap               between               LPH               and               its               comparables               trading               in               Hong               Kong               and               is               working               with               its               legal               counsel               in               reviewing               the               possibility               of               listing               in               Hong               Kong.

3.

The               CFO               also               said               that               the               board               would               consider               a               buyout               offer               of               $4               -               $5               if               that's               the               best               for               all               shareholders               even               though               the               CEO's               original               vision               is               to               grow               the               company               into               a               big               cap.

I               was               called               out               by               an               important               meeting               later               of               the               day               and               thus               did               not               get               a               chance               to               sit               in               LLEN's               presentation,               but               I               am               sure               LLEN               management               team               would               probably               give               similar               answers.

Information               about               the               Company's               Major               Suppliers
               To               dig               further               to               understand               the               supply               side               of               the               company's               operations,               which               is               the               second               most               important               piece               of               running               the               business               after               the               key               assets,               I               did               some               extensive               research               of               LPH's               top               5               suppliers               that               together               account               for               72%               of               the               company's               cost               of               sales               in               2010.

Here               is               what               I               found:
               Guangzhou               Tenghao               Company,               LPH               No.1               supplier               (17%)               in               2010:
               Headquarter               Location:               Guangzhou               city               in               Guangdon               province               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangzhou)               --               one               of               the               biggest               harbors               in               China               importing               all               kinds               of               goods               including               petroleum               products.

Also               the               biggest               city               in               the               most               populated               province               in               China.
               Corporate               website:               http://www.tnho.com.cn/intro/gsjs.html
               Corporate               profile               on               a               job               posting               site:               http://gz.oiljob.cn/jobseeker/company_message_1_0_937_1.html
               My               Note:               Tenghao               is               a               very               large               national               refiner               and               supplier               of               petroleum               products               that               was               formed               as               a               joint               venture               by               several               top               universities               in               China,               China               Petroleum               &               Chemical               Corp.

(SNP),               CNOOC               Ltd.

(CEO),               and               other               national               oil               producers.

It               has               branches/subsidiaries               in               southern               and               north-central               China               and               sells               products               mostly               to               mid-size+               oil               distributors               and               wholesalers               in               China.
               Lanxin               Petroleum               Co.,               Ltd.,               LPH               No.2               supplier               (16%)               in               2010:
               Headquarter               Location:               Beijing               City               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing)               --               capital               of               China               and               one               of               the               top               3               most               populated               city               in               China.
               Corporate               website:               http://www.china-bluestar.com/cn/zyyw/index.asp?producttypeid=69&MenuOn=5
               Baidu               Search:               http://www.baidu.com/s?bs=Lanxin+Petroleum&f=8&wd=%C0%B6%D0%C7%CA%AF%D3%CD%D3%D0%CF%DE%B9%AB%CB%BE&n=2&inputT=889
               Shanxi               province               random               product               quality               examination               in               2010,               which               specifically               called               out               Lanxin               Petroleum               gasoline               used               by               Longwei               passed               the               test:               http://wenku.baidu.com/view/fb98f2f7ba0d4a7302763a72.html
               My               Note:               Lanxin               Group               is               one               of               the               biggest               conglomerates               in               China               with               public               traded               and               private               subsidiary               doing               a               wide               range               of               businesses.

It's               public               traded               subsidiary               Shen               Yang               Petroleum,               which               I               used               as               a               comparable               to               LPH               in               my               valuation,               is               a               large               petroleum               and               chemical               importer               and               refiner               in               northern               China.

It               also               has               at               least               three               large               scale               private               independent               subsidiaries               supplying               petroleum               in               central               and               northern               China               that               have               "Lanxin               Petroleum"               as               part               of               their               company               names               (which               locale               specific               prefix).
               Panjin               Jinjiang               Oil               Company,               LPH               No.3               supplier               (14%)               in               2010:
               Headquarter               Location:               Panjin               City               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panjin)               --               a               harbor               and               major               oil-producing               city               in               Liaoning               Province               at               north-east               corner               of               China.
               Corporate               profile               on               a               yellow               page               site:               http://nengyuan.qincai.net/corp-8012.html
               My               Note:               Panjin               Jinjiang               Oil               Company               is               a               large-size               regional               provider               of               petroleum               products               in               northeast               China.
               Yan               Lian               Industrial               Group               (a               fully-owned               subsidiary               of               Shaanxi               Province               Yan               Chang               Petroleum               Industrial               Group),               LPH               No.4               supplier               (13%)               in               2010:
               Headquarter               Location:               Yan'an               City               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yan%27an)               --               A               major               city               in               Shaanxi               province,               adjacent               with               Shanxi               province               to               the               west.

Shaanxi               province               is               the               trading               center               for               many               goods               coming               from               Mongolia,               western               part               of               China,               Russia,               and               countries               adjacent               to               the               west               border               of               China.

All               these               areas               are               major               oil-production               areas.
               Corporate               profile               on               Baidu               Pedia:               http://baike.baidu.com/view/4724023.htm
               Corporate               website:               http://yanlianshiyejituan.cn.gongchang.com/
               Parent               company               (Shaanxi               Province               Yan               Chang               Petroleum               Industrial               Group,               top               500               companies               in               China)               website:               http://www.yanlian.com/gsjj.asp
               My               Note:               Yan               Lian               Industrial               Group               is               a               super-sized               oil               refiner               in               Shaanxi               province.

Its               parent               company               Yan               Chang               Petroleum               Industrial               Group               is               a               national               petroleum               giant               and               one               of               the               top               500               companies               in               China               that               is               partially               own               by               Shaanxi               provincial               government               (100%               owned               by               provincial               government               before               until               being               partially               privatized).
               Tianjin               Dagang               Jinyu               Industrial               Co.,               Ltd.,               LPH               No.5               supplier               (12%)               in               2010:
               Headquarter               Location:               Tianjin               City               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianjin)               --               one               of               the               biggest               harbors               in               China               importing               all               kinds               of               goods               including               petroleum               products               and               a               center               of               heavy               industrial               activities.
               Corporate               profile               on               Alibaba:               http://tjjysy.cn.alibaba.com/athena/companyprofile/tjjysy.html
               My               Note:               This               is               a               more               regional,               rather               than               national,               supplier.

However,               it               has               been               doing               the               business               for               20               years               and               has               a               very               complete               list               of               petroleum               and               chemical               products.

So,               it               still               looks               like               a               very               reputed               and               reliable               mid-size               supplier               to               me.
               Looking               at               the               information               on               the               top               5               suppliers               shown               above,               I               have               the               following               observations:
               Three               of               them               are               super               big               national               petroleum               producers               in               China,               and               the               remaining               two               are               well               known               mid-size+               regional               petroleum               producers.

All               of               them               have               advanced               oil               refining               and               processing               facilities               and               are               very               reliable               suppliers.

From               all               the               information               I               see,               although               they               these               companies               are               big               and               sell               products               to               many               places               in               China,               they               are               not               based               in               Shanxi               province               and               don't               have               any               major               facility               or               distribution               network               in               Taiyuan               metro               or               other               places               in               Shanxi               province.

So,               they               have               use               a               wholesaler               in               the               province               to               store               their               products               and               distribute               the               products               to               retailers.
               It               does               not               look               possible               that               Cai               can               have               substantial               ownership               in               any               of               these               big               suppliers               and               can               influence               their               management               team.

Remember               that               these               companies               are               big,               and               most               of               Cai's               capital               is               still               tied               to               LPH.

So,               it               is               extremely               unlikely               that               any               of               these               suppliers               will               do               any               cover               up               for               LPH.
               It               is               almost               impossible               that               any               of               these               big               and               well-regarded               suppliers               would               take               customers'               deposit               and               run               away               or               eat               it               own               words               written               in               contracts               to               supply               a               valuable               customer               like               LPH               petroleum               products               at               deeply               discounted,               very               competitive               prices               in               a               timely               matter.

The               implication:               LPH's               advances               to               suppliers               are               safe               and               well               spent               for               a               good               purpose.
               By               law               of               statistical               distribution               and               regression               (notice               how               slowly               the               percentage               decreases               from               No.1               to               No.2,               it               is               likely               that               the               next               2               to               5               biggest               suppliers               probably               account               for               20%               -               25%               of               LPH's               2010               cost               of               sales,               and               they               are               also               big               national               or               regional               petroleum               suppliers.

In               other               words,               the               top               7               to               10               suppliers               together               likely               account               for               95%               of               LPH's               annual               material               purchases.

So,               to               audit               95%               of               LPH's               cost               of               sales,               its               auditor               only               needs               to               send               inquiry               letters               to               no               more               than               10               companies               to               ask               them               how               much               their               2010               sales               to               LPH               was.

Of               course               this               kind               of               information               is               confidential,               but               any               supplier               will               have               no               problem               releasing               it               as               long               as               the               requesting               party               has               a               written               consent               from               its               customer.

It               is               not               an               exaggeration               to               say               that               doing               this               is               really               a               walk               in               a               park               for               any               auditor.

The               simplicity               and               sheer               small               number               of               suppliers               and               major               assets               is               the               critical               factor               that               differentiates               LPH               from               the               majority               of               other               Chinese               small               caps               in               terms               of               likelihood               of               manipulating               accounting               numbers               and               fooling               the               auditor.
               One               point               I'd               like               to               mention               here               is               that               by               staying               strictly               with               storing               and               distributing               products               (in               LPH's               case               petroleum               products)               and               away               from               the               task               of               actually               discovering               and               producing               products               --               e.g.

exploring               and/or               refining               oils               --               LPH               faces               much               smaller               risk               than               PTR,               SNP,               or               CBEH               (because               a               huge               chunk               of               CBEH's               business               is               producing               bio-diesel               fuel).

Any               company               that               is               in               the               business               of               production               faces               the               risk               of               disruption               in               production               due               to               all               kinds               of               problems               every               day.

The               risk               is               especially               high               for               oil/bio-diesel               producers               (look               no               further               than               BP's               huge               disaster               last               year               for               example).

On               the               other               hand,               the               risk               on               cost               side               that               LPH               faces               is               much               smaller               and               manageable.
               Aggregated               analysis
               The               aforementioned               events               and               developments               together               with               all               additional               data               and               information               from               other               sources               have               given               me               enough               confidence               to               once               again               feel               confident               that               there               is               no               material               misrepresentation               in               any               of               the               company's               past               financial               reports               and               that               the               management               team               has               not               mis-informed               the               public               intentionally               regarding               the               company's               assets               and               operations.
               Again,               I               recognize               that               there               is               no               sure               guarantee               that               no               serious               problem               can               happen               in               the               company,               and               as               I               say               in               my               disclaimers               that               investors               always               need               to               do               their               own               due               diligent               and               control               their               investment               and               trading               risks               (managing               risk               for               short-term               trading               is               especially               important               for               short-term               traders               on               Chinese               small               caps               because               of               current               still               distorted               sentiment               and               manipulations               by               shorts               and               some               others).

However,               basing               on               strong               surrounding               evidences               suggesting               an               honest,               integral,               and               investor-friendly               management               team,               auditor,               and               business               operations,               I               see               no               reason               not               to               give               the               benefit               of               doubts               to               the               management               team.

Think               about               this:               if               I               am               a               CEO               who               is               seriously               cooking               the               book               and               just               want               to               get               more               money               from               the               public,               why               would               I               committed               to               use               cash,               working               capital,               and               debt               financing               to               expand               my               business               to               give               existing               shareholders               biggest               bang               for               their               bucks               and               use               limited               equity               financing               only               as               the               absolute               last               resort?

Why               would               I               work               so               hard               to               upgrade               to               a               big               4               or               6               auditor               in               coming               months,               who               I               know               very               likely               will               scrutinize               my               books               hard               before               willing               to               sign               up?

Why               would               I               produced               a               detailed               site               video               with               the               CEO               of               a               well-known               PR               and               analytical               house?

Why               would               I               openly               let               all               people               watch               recordings               of               my               operations               on               my               website?

Why               would               I               openly               put               key               legal               documents               on               my               website               for               all               investors               to               view?

If               any               part               of               my               business               operation               or               financial               reports               is               bogus,               I               wouldn't               do               any               one               of               these               actions,               letting               alone               all               of               them.
               In               my               opinion               nowadays               some               demand               on               the               management               team               of               Chinese               small               caps               to               prove               everything               just               go               too               far               beyond               the               line.

By               the               standards               Chinese               companies               are               required               to               prove               themselves,               Exxon               Mobile,               Chevron,               or               Philips               Conoco               Phillips               all               may               be               frauds               and               all               are               all               not               worth               investing               because               I               bet               very               few               investors               including               institutional               ones               have               checked               their               oil               wells,               platforms,               and               other               facilities.

So,               should               I               value               all               these               stocks               at               a               forward               P/E               of               less               than               1.5?

Nothing               is               100%               in               this               world,               but               I               do               not               think               it               is               an               adviceable               or               statistically               proven               profitable               strategy               to               base               investment               decision               on               a               slim               probability               --               say               1%               --               of               something               being               true.

If               you               ask               me               I               would               say               I               am               pretty               certain               but               not               100%               certain               either               that               even               the               most               well               known               companies               out               there               such               as               Google,               Berkshire               Hathaway,               and               Boeing               are               100%               clean.

Thus,               I               do               not               think               that               it               is               fair               and               reasonable               for               an               analyst               to               excessively               punish               a               stock               and               shy               away               from               it               simply               because               he/she               has               not               seen               all               internal               accounting               or               business               records               (if               he/she               does               he/she               probably               has               violated               SEC's               rule               on               insider               trading               anyway).
               The               stock               has               been               depressed               at               current               underground               dirt               cheap               level               over               the               past               few               months               under               last               rounds               of               allegations               of               frauds               on               several               Chinese               small               caps,               among               them               CCME,               RINO,               and               LPH's               not               so               similar               peer               CBEH.

Even               for               those               who               have               very               negative               feeling               toward               Chinese               small               caps               for               RTOs,               they               need               to               recognize               that               there               is               no               specific               accusation               or               allegation               of               fraud               or               financial               misreporting               of               any               sort               by               the               company.

In               addition,               although               the               management               is               working               diligently               to               upgrade               to               a               big               4               or               6               accounting               firm               under               general               pressure               from               investors               on               Chinese               small               caps,               there               is               no               reason               to               think               that               its               current               auditor               is               not               doing               its               job.

The               fact               that               LPH's               business               model               is               so               straight               forward               and               it               is               so               easy               to               audit               the               titles               of               their               key               assets               and               transactions               that               constitute               the               majority               on               their               balance               sheet               and               income               statement               is               another               thing               that               dramatically               decrease               the               likelihood               of               the               company               manipulating               its               numbers               without               being               caught               for               years.

I               think               the               stock               has               been               depressed               to               this               level               solely               because               of               general               "doubt"               being               applied               to               all               Chinese               small               caps               lately               and               many               investors               adopting               an               approach               of               assuming               guilty               until               proven               innocent               and               sell               first               and               ask               question               later               to               all               Chinese               small               caps.
               The               trouble               in               CBEH,               which               many               consider               a               comparable               to               LPH,               added               doubts               and               fears               to               this               stock               too.

What               many               people               fail               to               recognize               is               that               although               the               two               companies'               operations               have               some               similarities,               comparing               CBEH               to               LPH               is               still               comparing               apple               to               orange.

One               critical               difference               is               that               CBEH               is               in               the               business               of               producing               something,               in               this               case               bio               fuels.

Any               company               that               produces/manufactures               something               naturally               can               potentially               run               into               problems               of               not               being               able               to               produce               as               much               as               the               company               would               like               to               sell               due               to               all               sort               of               reasons               --               supply               shortage,               technology               problem,               labor               problem,               quality               control               problem,               etc.

Another               key               difference               is               that               bio               diesel               has               much               smaller               customer               base               and               distribution               channel               than               regular               gasoline               and               diesel.

In               other               words,               CBHE               faces               much               higher               operational               difficulties               and               risks               than               LPH               on               both               production               and               sales               sides.

LPH               is               in               the               business               of               purely               getting               a               highly               standard               product               from               source               producers,               store               them,               and               then               sell               and               distribute               them               to               customers.

As               I               said               in               my               coverage               initiation,               for               a               commodity               with               high               demand               like               gasoline,               there               is               really               no               question               if               LLEN               will               be               able               to               sell               all               inventory               it               has               got               any               time               it               wants,               and               with               many               not-so-sophisticated               oil               wells               and               refineries               sitting               in               the               oil-rich               part               of               western               and               northern               China,               southern               Russia,               and               some               other               adjacent               countries,               it               is               not               difficult               for               the               company               to               find               rich               supplies               of               the               products.

The               only               difficulty               is               that               it               has               to               have               national               level               one               license               to               store               oil               and               buy               directly               from               refineries,               a               license               that               is               enormously               difficult               to               get               in               China               (think               about               national               communication               license               that               AT&T               and               Verizon               need               in               order               to               operate               telecom               in               the               U.S.

as               an               analogy)               and               huge               capital               and               technical               requirements               to               build               these               huge               oil               storage               tanks,               fueling               stations,               pipes,               railways,               and               advanced               monitoring               systems.

Many               people               probably               are               not               aware               of               how               daunting               the               engineering               specifications               of               these               oil               tanks               and               other               equipments               are.

Building               these               facilities               are               not               like               building               a               single               house               in               Texas!

It               is               extremely               expensive,               and               it               is               very               hard               to               pass               government               inspections               on               safety,               quality               control,               and               environmental               control,               to               start               operating.

However,               once               the               company               has               pass               all               these               obstacles               and               have               had               all               required               arsenal               in               place,               the               business               operations               become               a               stable               and               low               risk               profit               generating               machine               that               is               very               easy               to               manage               because               the               product               sells               for               itself               and               barrier               to               entry               is               extremely               high.
               Notice               that               a               couple               funds               increased               their               stake               in               LPH               big               time               last               quarter               (http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=LPH&selected=LPH&FormType=Institutional),               $3               million               of               money               is               not               a               small               amount               by               any               standard,               if               I               were               the               fund               manager               of               these               funds               I               would               not               have               put               such               a               huge               investment               in               a               small               cap               unless               I               had               known               exactly               what               I               were               getting               and               were               confident               that               I               would               be               able               to               get               an               abnormal               return               like               100%               in               my               investment               (rather               than               cents               or               dimes).

Rochdale               and               Fidelity               (through               its               subsidiary               FIL               LTD)               are               not               tier-one               funds,               but               they               still               have               more               than               enough               arsenal               to               make               a               big               bang               on               a               small               cap               like               LPH.

I               feel               that               what               happened               to               YONG               (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/morgan-stanley-invests-in-short-sale-target-yongye-international.html?cmpid=yhoo)               or               CFSG               (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/us-privequity-orphans-idUSTRE74N0G620110524?feedType=RSS&feedName=innovationNews&rpc=43)               might               happen               on               LPH               too.

The               stock               hasn't               get               a               tier               one               institutional               buyer               yet,               but               for               now               tier               2               or               even               tier               3               buyers               are               more               than               enough.

Also,
               Also,               short               interest               has               decreased               to               a               meager               285k,               or               about               0.26%               of               shares               outstanding               in               May               (http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=LPH&selected=LPH),               short               interest               in               LPH               had               never               been               material               to               begin               with               (about               0.8%               at               the               height)               but               nevertheless               has               decreased               by               about               1/4               over               the               past               4               months.

So,               it               seems               that               even               the               few               daring               shorts               that               took               advantage               on               the               stock's               price               drop               in               the               short               term               have               concluded               after               several               months               "due               diligence"               that               this               company               is               for               real               and               that               they               have               exhausted               their               ability               to               temporarily               fool               and               frighten               the               market               by               their               fabricated               doom               story.
               Barring               any               serious,               major               misrepresentation               of               the               company's               assets               shown               on               its               balance               sheet,               if               I               were               a               big               angel               fund,               VC,               pure               speculative               hedge               fund,               or               industry               buyer               with               enough               capital               to               deploy               right               now,               I               would               be               willing               to               buy               out               LPH               for               at               least               $4               per               share               as               long               as               Mr.

Cai               agrees               to               remain               as               my               consultant               for               3               years               (because               I               need               his               existing               connection               to               Shanxi               government               officials).

I               would               be               willing               to               pay               $5               as               long               as               I               know               that               I'll               own               existing               two               huge               facilities               (and               all               existing               equipments               and               systems               in               it),               the               national               tier               1               oil               storage               and               distribution               license               (which               is               very               difficult               to               obtain               in               China),               and               contracts               with               top               5               existing               suppliers.

Think               about               this,               even               if               fiscal               year               2012               EPS               comes               in               only               $0.50,               about               half               of               my               extremely               conservative               estimate               (see               next               section               for               details)               and               half               of               current               book               value               of               equity               per               share               is               wiped               out,               this               will               still               be               a               good               investment               for               me               just               from               the               view               of               real               return               on               private               equity.

$0.50               on               $5.00               investment               is               still               10%               return               in               the               first               year,               and               that               return               will               keep               on               growing               even               under               the               worst               possible               scenario               under               the               wildest               imagination               I               can               possibly               compose.

Comparing               this               to               investment               in               real               estate               that               many               Americans               are               familiar               with,               which               is               a               completely               private               equity               with               liquidity               that               is               lower               than               the               smallest               cap               stocks               and               significant               operating               expenses               and               hassle,               10%               return               on               an               oil               distributor               with               very               visible               growth               trend,               looks               pretty               good               to               me.

So,               in               my               opinion               the               market               is               currently               valuing               LPH               not               at               its               full               potential               (good               case               scenario),               not               at               probability               weighted               average               scenario,               or               not               even               at               very               bad               scenario               for               a               going               concern.

Current               price               of               $1.5               or               so               can               only               be               justified               if               this               company               is               going               to               bankruptcy               court               immediately               and               has               to               sell               its               valuable               storage               facilities               and               tanker               trucks               at               significant               discount               to               their               book               values               (even               if               the               company               needs               to               sell               them               in               a               not               to               disorder               manner,               LPH               should               be               able               to               sell               these               assets               for               more               than               their               book               value               because               land               use               right,               real               estate               price,               and               construction               costs               have               gone               up               dramatically               over               the               last               two               years)!

I               think               at               this               moment               I               need               to               find               a               high-definition               microscope               to               see               the               chance               of               that               happening               on               LPH.
               So,               I               surely               am               not               joking               in               mentioning               pure               speculative               hedge               funds,               VCs,               or               even               early               seed               angle               funds               here.

Using               a               five               year               investment               time               frame,               a               VC               can               probably               expect               to               get               as               good               return               from               LPH               right               now               as               they               can               get               from               a               home-run               start-up               yet               at               significantly               lower               risk               than               even               the               start-ups               with               the               most               promising               and               guaranteed               business.

This               is               just               my               opinion,               but               I               think               Rochdale               and               Fidelity               probably               feel               the               same               too.

The               fact               that               nobody               has               stepped               over               the               5%               ownership               line               yet               doesn't               mean               that               nobody               will.

Again,               look               no               further               than               YONG               and               CFSG               for               examples               (see               valuation               section               for               my               estimate               of               fair               value               for               the               stock).

Again,               at               current               price               level,               the               ultimate               value               arbitration               --               LBO               of               the               company's               current               stocks               trading               on               AMEX               and/or               relisting               the               company               on               HongKong               or               Shanghai               exchange,               where               many               of               LPH's               comparables               are               trading               at               P/Es               of               20+               (see               valuation               section               for               details),               is               very               real.

I               would               not               be               surprised               if               the               management               team               has               already               engaged               investment               banks               in               Hong               Kong               or               China               to               sketch               out               a               plan               for               listing               there.

Again,               a               buyout               of               even               $5               per               share               and               relist               for               $15               -               $20               per               share               (P/E               of               20               with               FTM               EPS               of               just               $1)               in               a               year               should               be               satisfactory               to               even               the               greediest               arbitragers.

Sure,               it               involves               a               lot               of               legal               work               to               buyout               and               relist               a               company,               but               for               a               potential               300%               return               in               a               year               (or               two)               if               I               can               summon               $500M               I'll               definitely               do               it.

Now,               as               a               standard               check               for               any               arbitrager,               even               if               EPS               for               next               fiscal               year               turns               out               to               be               only               $0.65               per               share,               almost               no               growth               from               this               year,               and               I               am               only               able               to               sell               the               stock               at               10x               EPS               in               Hong               Kong,               which               is               close               to               the               lowest               among               all               oil               operators               listed               there,               I               will               still               be               able               to               sell               each               share               at               $6.5               and               earn               30%               profit               (excluding               legal               costs               and               transaction               fees).

So,               my               range               of               arbitrage               gain               is               30%               -               300%!

To               execute               a               LBO               the               two               biggest               current               shareholders               of               course               have               the               upper               hand               because               they               control               majority               stake.

However,               even               an               outside               suitor               is               surely               not               out               of               competition               because               at               $5               or               even               $4               per               share               offer               of               immediate               "cash               out"               for               the               big               shareholders               should               be               tempting               to               them               after               being               baffled               for               so               long               by               the               undue               depression               of               the               stock               in               the               financial               market               here               even               if               they               had               a               vision               of               making               this               a               billion               dollar               company               and               a               well-known               global               energy               operator               in               the               long               term.
               Another               possibility               of               arbitrage               that               most               market               participants               are               not               aware               of               yet               is               the               reverse               execution               of               the               above               scheme               --               listing               on               Hong               Kong,               ShengZhen,               or               Shanghai               exchange               first               and               then               buyout               all               shares               currently               trading               on               Amex.

Think               about               this:               if               the               company               issues               10M               more               shares               for               $20               per               share               to               go               public               in               Hong               Kong,               the               company               will               get               $200M               capital               and               only               increase               share               base               by               less               than               10%               to               just               over               110M               and               fiscal               year               2012               projected               EPS               of               still               over               $1               (including               all               shares               trading               in               the               U.S.

as               a               base               for               calculation               pan-company               EPS).

Not               only               will               LPH               gets               all               additional               capital               it               needs               to               pay               the               last               acquisition               immediately               but               will               also               have               enough               spared               capital               to               buy               all               30M               or               so               floating               shares               on               Amex               for               $4               or               even               $5               per               share               and               again               earn               300%               return               for               any               shares               it               buys               from               Amex               and               resell               in               Hong               Kong.

Same               as               with               previous               scheme,               my               estimated               profit               under               the               close               to               worst               case               scenario               is               30%               excluding               expenses.

Again,               at               current               price               this               kind               of               arbitrage               plan               is               no               longer               just               a               theory,               casual               thought,               or               talk.

It               is               an               easily               executable               scheme               for               anybody               with               enough               capital               and               legal               expertise               in               corporate               reorganization               and               stock               listing.

I               am               not               saying               that               this               will               definitely               happen;               I               am               just               saying               that               this               surely               CAN               HAPPEN               any               time               and               that               it               is               possible               some               serious               institutional               or               private               investors               are               already               making               the               plan               going               without               being               detected               by               public               yet.

Redchip               President               David               Gentry's               Twit               last               week               that               Redchip               is               talking               to               investment               banks               in               Hong               Kong               for               listing               [of               its               clients               I               suppose]               (see               the               twit               on               6/9/2011               here:               http://twitter.com/RedChipNation)               is               in               my               eyes               a               strong               hint               of               what               to               come               for               LPH.
               Valuation               and               Target               Price
               While               LPH               is               in               similar               business               with               other               well-known               oil               distributors               like               KMP,               its               TTM               P/E               is               only               about               5.1%               of               KMP.

Its               FTM               P/E               is               only               about               3.7%               of               KMP.

Note               that               KMP's               gross               margin               and               net               margin               for               the               last               three               quarters               were               35.8%               and               14.5%               respectively,               while               LPH's               gross               margin               and               net               margin               for               the               last               three               quarters               were               19.7%               and               11.6%               respectively.

So,               I               think               a               rational               investor               should               be               able               to               easily               see               the               flaw               of               the               allegation               that               LPH's               financial               results               are               too               good               to               be               true               (or               maybe               it's               just               a               general               allegation               to               the               Chinese               small               caps               spectrum               that               spills               over               to               LPH).

If               19.7%               gross               margin               and               11.6%               net               margin               are               too               good               to               be               true               for               an               oil               distributor,               then               what               are               35.8%               gross               margin               and               14.5%               net               margin?

It               is               not               hard               to               understand               why               I               think               the               market               is               totally               misjudging               LPH.

I               do               recognize               that               it               is               not               unreasonable               to               expect               LPH               to               trade               at               a               discount               to               these               peers               within               foreseeable               future,               and               the               extent               of               the               discount               might               remain               substantial               in               the               next               couple               quarters               due               unfortunately               to               the               still               sour               sentiment               on               Chinese               small               caps.

Still,               in               my               opinion               the               discount               to               its               peers               is               too               huge               by               any               rational               reason.

Multiplying               a               very               low               target               P/E               of               just               5               by               the               projected               EPS               of               $1.09               for               fiscal               year               2012               produces               a               price               of               $5.45,               which               I               think               is               a               very               conservative               and               reasonable               target               price               for               the               stock               within               next               12               months.
               One               last               note:               as               shown               in               the               table,               LPH's               YOY               revenue               and               net               income               growth               rates               are               in               line               with               many               comparables               in               the               U.S.

and               China               in               general.

Just               by               looking               at               the               increase               in               crude               and               gasoline               prices               over               the               past               two               years               and               the               increase               in               consumption               all               over               the               world               particularly               in               China,               one               can               easily               apprehend               the               high               revenue               and               net               profit               growths               oil               operators               have               enjoyed.

So,               contrary               to               the               general               theme               of               attack               shorts               are               throwing               on               to               all               Chinese               small               caps,               there               is               nothing               unbelievable               or               "too               good               to               be               true"               in               LPH's               financial               results.

In               fact,               because               LPH               is               in               early               stage               of               its               corporate               life,               the               company               should               be               able               to               grow               faster               than               those               bigger               competitors               with               ease,               and               that's               what               the               company               is               doing               for               shareholders'               in               its               last               acquisition               for               fiscal               year               2012.
               About               the               Author:
               Kevin               Chen               is               an               independent               stock               analyst               covering               selected               stocks               as               a               hobby.

He               holds               Chartered               Financial               Analyst               credential,               a               MBA               degree               from               a               top               20               business               school               majoring               in               Investment               Management               and               Financial               Markets,               General               Financial               Management,               and               Corporate               Finance,               a               M.S.

MIS               degree,               and               a               M.S.

International               Administration               degree.

He               has               work               or               personal               experiences               in               IT/high               tech,               real               estate,               wholesale/retail,               manufacturing,               designing,               education,               and               entertainment               industries               in               China,               Taiwan,               Hong               Kong,               Canada,               and               USA.

He               has               years               of               experience               in               financial               planning               and               investment               management/consultation               for               corporations               and               individual               investors,               financial               analysis,               strategic               planning,               budgeting,               risk               management,               cost               control,               accounting,               data               mining,               trend               forecasting,               pattern               recognition,               behavioral               study,               and               statistical               modeling..
               Disclaimer:
               The               author               has               a               long               position               on               LPH               at               the               time               of               publishing               this               article.

The               article               only               represents               the               author's               personal               assessment               and               opinion               on               the               stock.

It               is               by               no               means               a               guarantee               of               performance               on               any               long               or               short               trades               on               the               stock               and               should               not               be               relied               upon               solely               for               buying               or               selling               the               stock.

Every               investment,               no               matter               how               compellingly               appealing               it               seems,               involves               risk.

Investors               should               do               their               own               due               diligence               and               consider               personal               risk               tolerance,               preferences,               needs,               tax               status,               and               other               factors               when               making               an               investment               or               a               trading               decision.

Information               was               obtained               from               sources               believed               to               be               reliable,               but               its               accuracy               and               completeness               are               not               guaranteed.






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